How serious is the sea level rise threat?

There have been numerous studies pointing to the connection between climate change and sea level rise, warning the world that in not so far future from now many parts of the world will likely experience severe flooding if global temperatures continue to grow.

The latest such study comes from Michael Schaeffer of Climate Analytics and Wageningen University who claims that even if we limit global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, global sea levels will still continue to rise, reaching between 1.5 and 4 metres above present-day levels by the year 2300.

He also concluded that if world were to limit rise in global temperatures to below 1.5 degrees Celsius this would likely halve sea-level rise by 2300, compared to a 2-degree scenario.

These studies attract plenty of public attention, despite being just assumptions of future „could be“ scenarios. The scientists admit the fact that it is very difficult to quantify the level of sea level rise in years to come, especially because it is still uncertain whether global sea level found for the past could be carried into the future.

These future estimates, despite still being connected with significant level of uncertainty, all point to the fact that we must take sea level rise issue far more seriously than we are doing it today.

If we continue business as usual scenario sea level rise will spell major problems for many coastal areas all over the globe. Coastal communities are already running out of time to adapt to global rise in sea levels.

The affected areas will not only be low lying deltaic countries like Bangladesh and Netherlands, and small islands, but also major cities such as New York. Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, said that one metre sea level rise would increase the frequency of severe flooding from once per century to once every three years for New York City.

Climate change – Current outlook and research

Arctic’s see summer ice has experienced the new record low according to the European scientists. Since the measurement first started back in 1972 Arctic ice never covered such a small amount of area as it did this year, at only 4.24 million square kilometers. The second lowest year at record was 2007 when Arctic's summer ice covered an area of 4.27 million square kilometers.

The US scientists from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) have calculated that the rate of melting in Arctic is now twice as big as it was first measured back in 1972.

At the same time the international team of scientists led by Stephen Barker of Cardiff University has studied the samples from Greenland's ice sheets. According to these samples climate is very capable to create rapid and abrupt changes because this has been a case of Earth's climate for hundreds of thousands of years.

In other climate news US scientists have also discovered that the polar ice caps currently are melting rapidly and that the sea level is rising at a rate of about 30 centimeters per century. If the current warming trend continues this will in years to come create huge threat to world's population that lives in coastal zones.

It is still impossible to predict future climate because of large number of different factors all of which need to be taken into account while making future climate predictions, not to mention that there is also a very complex interaction between these factors which makes future climate models even more difficult.

But science is at least trying, measuring, collecting various data and samples all in hope to provide world leaders with possible solutions that would halt the impact of climate change. Climate change is the biggest environmental threat of our time, an environmental threat that could even in the worst possible scenario threaten the existence of our future generations.

How to ensure adequate protection from major sea level rise?

Climate change will completely change our way of life and future generations will have their hands full in dealing with different climate change threats. Among the most talked about climate change threats is also a major sea level rise.

Sea levels are already increasing very fast and in years to come several areas of the world might completely disappear from the global map of the world, being completely swollen by water. This is the reason why people need to adapt very quickly to these changes, and who knows, the way things are currently going, maybe in years to come, floating homes will become a common sight in many countries of the world.

Some countries are more vulnerable to sea level rise than other, and some countries are also technologically much more superior to tackle this threat as compared to some other, mostly developing countries.

However, the lives of people should be equally valued in both developing as well as developed world which means that developed countries should create massive funds so that poor countries could develop adequate flood engineering solutions to tackle the sea level threat.

Many densely populated areas could experience problems with huge sea level rise, even before the end of this century, and world leaders need to start thinking right away about the possible technologies that could protect these areas from massive flooding.

Failure to do so will not only create millions of refugees but also millions of deaths. We must avoid this scenario, no matter what.

Is huge sea level rise likely to happen?

Most climate change predictions have concluded that sea levels will globally rise around 1 meter by the end of this century. Such sea level rise is already huge, but a major review of climate change in Antarctica conducted by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)come up with even bigger numbers, namely that sea levels could rise 1,4m by the end of this century.

How fast are sea levels rising?

Are sea levels really rising as fast as many environmentalists say they are, and will sea levels really gonna rise one meter by the end of this century? In 2007 UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change already predicted serious sea levels rise somewhere between 7 to 23 inches (18 to 59 centimeters) but many latest studies showed how IPCC's predictions were wrong, and that the impact of climate change has really been underestimated in IPCC report. The latest example that supports this is Brussels study that involved scientists from 10 universities.

According to this new study global sea levels are very likely to rise one meter by the end of this century. This latest study included one big factor that was neglected in IPCC's study two years ago, namely the fact that Greenland’s ice sheet is losing gigantic 179 billion tons of ice per year. Results of this study also showed that Oceans are warming 50 percent faster than the IPCC predicted mostly because Arctic sea ice is disappearing much faster during the summer than it used to.

Having all these on mind scientists are constantly warning governments that drastic cuts are needed to avoid the worst that climate change has to offer. World is simply releasing too much greenhouse gases into the atmosphere due to heavy fossil fuels combustion. Reports say how in 2008, global CO2 emissions have increased 1,8 percent compared to 2007, and how in 2008 world has released 31.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

In December this year world governments will try to agree on new climate deal to stop further growing of climate change impact. Though the world would really need major cuts in CO2 emissions I really don't see this happening, well at least not in form of short-term targets. Industry was hit really hard with recession, and has still not fully recovered so I doubt that rich countries will decide to go for major CO2 cuts because that could weaken already falling economies even further. Though world is becoming a "bit greener" than it used to be it is still not green enough to sacrifice the holy cow of modern civilization, namely the industry. And since industry is still very much based on fossil fuels with renewable energy sector at least couple of decades away I really don't see how will world make drastic CO2 cuts. And without drastic CO2 cuts climate change impact will become stronger and stronger.

Greenland sea level rise is big threat to U.S.?

What's Greenland got to do with good old Uncle Sam? Nothing at the moment but current rapid ice melting in Greenland could cause serious sea levels rise across the U.S. northeast coast in years to come. If Greenland continues its current melting trend by the end of this century sea level rise on northeast cost would be significantly bigger than for the rest of our planet, posing significant threat to major U.S. cities like New York and Boston.

So how big could this sea level rise be? Scientists say it could even rise by 12 to 20 inches more (half meter more) than other coastal areas because major northeastern cities are directly in the path of the greatest sea level rise. Such high sea level rise would of course cause extreme flooding but flooding would be only one of the problems. Such big sea level rise would also cause tremendous damage to environment because salty water from ocean would enter river deltas. This scenario would not only create huge loss in biodiversity but also major economic damage.

Greenland ice melting has already reached alarming level, and unless we do something about global warming this horror scenario will turn into reality by the end of this century. In the last ten years Greenland's ice-melt rate has been steadily growing by 7 percent each year, and this trend will continue to happen without major greenhouse gas cuts.

It still remains to be seen whether world leaders have learned something from science in the past couple of years. It will be really interesting to see how far is world ready to go to stop global warming and climate change. Many politicians still think they have all the time in the world to deal with global warming, and many believe that global warming isn't so serious as science warns us it is. Politics and environment do not get along quite often so I'm really not expecting miracles later this year in Copenhagen.

Lead author of this study was Aixie Hu, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Sea level rise could reach catastrophic proportions

If global warming trend causes the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to collapse world will be in great trouble. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that a collapse of this ice sheet would raise sea levels around the world by about 16.5 feet, but the latest study carried out by the researchers from Oregon State University and the University of Toronto showed that sea increase level would be almost 21 feet in such places as Washington, D.C., with many coastal areas being completely devastated.

If global warming trend causes collapse of West Antarctic Ice Sheet sea level rise will have devastating effect worldwide.

Nobody doesn't know how fast could breakup of West Antarctic Ice Sheet happen, or will it melt completely or not. This may not happen for hundreds of years, but if global warming trend continues there are good chance this could happen even sooner than we expect it. Very high rates of coastal erosion, greater damage from major storm events, problems with ground water salinization, and some other issues would follow such huge level rise causing catastrophe in many parts of the world.

Since all the latest reports show that Antarctica is rapidly warming there is definitely a reason for concern. Sea level rise many not trouble our generation that much but future generations could be faced with the real catastrophe in form of water swallowing many cities around the globe.

Sea level will rise one metre this century?

In 2001. Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change estimated that by the year 2100, global warming will cause increase of sea levels rise of 9 to 88 cm, but many scientists including two German scientists believe how majority of these estimations are understated and how sea levels worldwide will rise about one metre this century.

Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, head of the Potsdam Institute for Research on Global Warming Effects, and Jochem Marotzke, a German leading meteorologist said that different scenario is "just barely possible" since world governments will be very likely unable to limit the rise in average global temperatures and this of course will rise sea level worldwide.

Sea level will rise about one meter this century?

Kyoto Protocol and other similar agreements that should curb greenhouse gases emissions have been so far without any significant impact leaving little room for hope in success against global warming. Results of this new study are based on studies of melting Himalaya glaciers and shrinking of the Greenland ice cap.

Such high sea level rise will cause devastating problems in many countries within a metre or so of sea level, like for instance in Holland. And while rich countries like Holland will probably have enough funds to at least plan some sort of defense against this, extremely poor countries like Bangladesh will be helpless once worst happens. Countries like Bangladesh will rely entirely on rich countries that started this terrible ecological problem. Hopefully their efforts when this happens won't be the same as their current efforts to stop global warming. Or the poorer will suffer the most. Once again.

Sea level rise up to 6.6 feet by the end of the century

The latest study conducted by the US scientists showed that we could expect worldwide sea levels increase by about 2.6 to 6.6 feet by 2100 due to the global warming. In order to get these results scientists examined scenarios that include loss of ice from Greenland, Antarctica and the world's smaller glaciers and ice caps into the world's oceans, as well as ocean expansion because of the global warming. Though these results are lower than the ones of similar studies results are still alarming.

Rising sea levels are one of the main threats of global warming especially in countries like Bangladesh where 80 to 90% of country is within a metre or so of sea level. If there would indeed be increase by about 6.6 feet by the end of the century many low-lying coastal areas will have serious problems, and these areas are of course home to many millions of people. Not only Bangladesh could feel severity of sea level rise, but also some other richer countries like for instance Holland (Amsterdam area), Italy (Venice area), and even USA (cities like New Orleans).

Of course the poorest, namely the Third World countries will suffer the most since they lack necessary funds to build an efficient defensive system. And global warming isn't slowing down as greenhouse gases emission are still increasing despite alleged political support that should cut down current emission rate. And as the temperatures rise so does the sea level. Looks like another major problem in making, of course again caused by man made global warming phenomenon.

Sea level rise - How much, when and where

Today we are hearing more and more disturbing news about ever-increasing sea level rise due to the global warming. Sea level rise isn't only result of ice melting that is caused because of increased average temperatures but also the result of thermal expansion of the sea water that again happens as the result of higher temperatures.

In 2001. Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change estimated that by the year 2100, global warming will cause increase of sea levels rise of 9 to 88 cm, but according to latest results of scientific study from a UK/Finnish team which has built a computer model linking temperatures to sea levels for the last two millennia, sea level could rise significantly more, even up to one and the half meter.

These findings were presented at a major science conference in Vienna (April 2008) where Svetlana Jevrejeva, one of the lead members of research team said: "For the past 2,000 years, the (global average) sea level was very stable, it only varied by about 20cm, but by the end of the century, we predict it will rise by between 0.8m and 1.5m.

Scientists associate this mainly with the rapid melting of ice sheets that is taking place in many parts of the world, especially in Greenland and West Antarctic, that are losing its ice mass more rapidly than expected. Lot of evidence point out that sea level rise will increase by at least one meter by 2100 and this could cause serious problems for many low-lying countries, and especially those whose economies don't have enough funds to build effective sea defense systems.

This could be a serious problem for many people that live in Ganges delta in Asia, and this is the home of many people. Poor country Bangladesh could be the most vulnerable since eighty to 90% of Bangladesh is within a metre or so of sea level, and Bangladesh doesn't have necessary funds to defend from such large sea level rise.

Yet again, the poorest will suffer.