Global
warming and the resulting higher temperatures will likely account for extreme
rainfall in the tropics. According to a latest MIT study every 1 degree Celsius
rise in temperature in the tropics will result in 10 percent heavier rainfall
extremes. This rainfall increase could have major impact on flooding in many populous
regions in the tropics.
The
researchers are convinced that rainfall extremes in tropical regions are more
sensitive to global warming compared to other regions thought they are yet to
understand the reasons why.
The basic
principle of this increase in precipitation is well known. Greenhouse gases
such as carbon dioxide enter the atmosphere, more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
means higher temperature, and this in turn leads to increases in the amount of
water vapor in the atmosphere. More water vapor in the atmosphere means that
there will be heavier rain because of the increased humidity, which fuels more
intense storms.
The MIT scientists
have used satellite observations of extreme rainfall between the latitudes of
30 degrees north and 30 degrees south, an area just above and below the Equator,
and were looking at the several climate models, which are able to simulate the
effects of both El Niño and global warming.
They have
discovered one clear pattern, namely that models that showed a strong response
in rainfall to El Niño also responded strongly to global warming.
The researchers
issued warnings to policymakers saying that although the rainfall will increase
in the wettest regions, the drier parts of the tropics will likely become even
more drier, meaning that they should not only take into account more damaging
flooding, but also less reliable rains from year to year.
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