Sunday, June 14, 2009

Is world really ready for new climate deal?

Politics is game of interests and lots of promises, and the best example of this is new climate deal that should be agreed later this year. In the beginning many countries have spoken about necessity to drastically reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions but it looks like the more we approach to the new climate deal the more reluctant countries are to make drastic CO2 cuts.

United States energy Secretary Steven Chu recently said how political opposition is still too strong for bigger greenhouse gas cuts, and China's foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang said how "it is natural for China to have some increase in its emissions". This kind of attitude from top two emitting countries in the world isn't exactly giving too much optimism to new climate deal, and some environmental experts have already started expressing their fears that this new climate deal will be even bigger failure than the infamous Kyoto protocol.

Neither of these two countries isn't really ready to make major CO2 cuts because at this point this would mean sacrificing industry because industry can't survive without harmful fossil fuels, and renewable energy sector is anything but ready to support the current industry needs. In this situation countries will first look to protect their industries, and only then work on required CO2 cuts.

Many climate models suggest how rich countries should cut down their emissions by about 40 % if we are to avoid two degrees temperature rise by the end of this century. Such major cuts look more and more impossible as we are nearing the end of the year. Financial crisis has already done tremendous damage to global economy, and many rich countries believe how drastic cuts would hurt falling economies even more. Though there are some signs that markets have started recovering condition is still far from ideal and countries will be reluctant to do anything that could slow down or even stop so much wanted economic recovery.

Clean energy future is still at least couple of decades away, but will climate change problem wait so long? If scientific estimates and different climate models are true we could soon see a real environmental disaster from ever-increasing climate change impact. World is perhaps not ready for new climate deal but new climate deal still sounds lot better than big environmental disaster.

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