Sunday, March 15, 2009

International climate deal can be reached?

Many environmentalists have started believing that international climate deal can be actually reached by the end of this year. Even Al Gore is positive about it and he really believes that global climate deal would be reached by the end of this year, mainly because "political tipping point" has been reached, with world leaders like Barrack Obama giving tremendous momentum to this burning issue. According to Gore "tackling the global economic crisis would provide a framework for a climate deal, and we could get an agreement later this year in Copenhagen". As you can see optimism is running high but is this enough?

It is definitely good to see some optimism here, especially after the infamous Kyoto protocol but optimism won't be enough without the drastic cut in greenhouse gas emissions. And when I say drastic cut in greenhouse gas emissions I mean 80 percent cut by the year 2050 because latest climate models have showed that only such cut in greenhouse gas emissions can prevent temperature increase of 2C (2C temperature increase is the border where global warming impact becomes really serious). Such drastic cut won't be easy to do even with political backup. Why?

Mostly because fossil fuels (such as coal and oil) are still dominant energy sources in many countries across the world, and especially in developing countries. And as many of you already know fossil fuels when burn release carbon emissions, and these emissions are mostly responsible for global warming problem. One solution could be renewable energy sector but unfortunately renewables are still negligible on global scale, so it would be really interesting to see how does world plan to satisfy its energy demands without relying heavily on fossil fuels. Could it be possible that this time economy and industry will have to make sacrifice for environment and ecology, and not the usual the other way around?

If yes then this will really be historic event in human history, a day when humans become aware that when our planet's health and lives of our descendants are at stake nothing can be more important, not even economy and almighty dollar. But we are still in the hope zone, still having some doubts based on previous experiences. Can this time really be different? Can world actually replace that no good Kyoto Protocol with new international climate pact that will ensure disaster-free future? Copenhagen will soon give us an answer to this question.

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