Monday, March 28, 2011

Climate change science - More about predictions than actual facts?

Is climate change science really more about predictions and possible scenarios than dealing with actual facts? Well, it certainly looks that way though there are two things that most scientists agree upon as the valid facts. The number one is the fact that climate change is really happening, and number two the climate change impact will become much stronger in years to come.

Why is climate change science still based mostly on predictions and possible future scenarios? The answer is because climate change is extremely complex phenomenon of which we currently know very little of.

There are so many different factors that influence the climate change that science is practically each day learning something new. There is pretty much a global scientific consensus about greenhouse gases being the main cause for ongoing climate change phenomenon. And that's about it.

But there are many other factors that also play a significant role in climate change phenomenon, and this gives climate change science an enormous complexity. Not only scientists have to be aware of all these factors when making climate change predictions, they also have to understand the interactions between all these factors, and this is pretty much impossible, even with the latest computer technology.

Don't get me wrong here, scientists are working really hard, collecting and analyzing different data from all corners of the world in search for answers. But despite their hard work they can still not offer exact answers, they can only predict possible outcomes.

Most of these possible outcomes, alias future climate change scenarios, are anything but comforting, and if these scientific predictions are true world is heading towards a disaster of enormous proportions in form of very frequent extreme weather events, droughts, flooding, new diseases, sea level rise, water and food shortages.

Sure we can always hope for the best and discard these future scenarios as scary scientific inventions, and keep telling ourselves that scientists do not know what they are talking about. Ignorance vs science? Is this really the best way for our society to go forward?

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