Monday, July 12, 2010

Climate law this year - Likely or unlikely?

Will Congress pass this year new climate legislation? Difficult to tell, and based on previous experiences it is perhaps wise not to expect miracles. In any case, changes are coming too slow, and legislators still look to be kind of afraid with the fact that this new climate bill could hurt domestic industry.

I do not look at climate change issue in that way. New climate deal will perhaps have some short-term negative consequences for domestic industry but on the long run we could actually see some economic benefits. Of course, in order to achieve this U.S. will have to fully reshape nation’s economic, environmental and legal standards.

There are many political analysts who believe that new climate bill take plenty of dramatic twists and turns, and that President Obama will have to increase its efforts by pushing Congress to come up with the adequate climate legislation.

Industry won't sit back and wait, and they will probably use their huge influence on politics to challenge every single climate change legislation that they do not like.

The role of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will also be one of the key battles. Will EPA be able to regulate the emissions under the Clean Air Act? Many expect that there'll be long legal fight, and the winner is still uncertain (though odds are in favor of EPA, especially after the Supreme Court upheld the EPA’s authority to regulate atmospheric carbon dioxide in 2007).

One thing is sure though, expect lot of political turmoil, promises, excuses, delays, you know the usual political stuff. And don't be surprised if everything once again ends up with huge disappointment. After all we are talking about climate change issue, and up to this point, climate change was only connected with huge failures, both on domestic as well as on international level.

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